{"id":3924,"date":"2019-01-22T11:37:16","date_gmt":"2019-01-22T11:37:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/?p=3924"},"modified":"2019-01-22T14:34:20","modified_gmt":"2019-01-22T14:34:20","slug":"forum-economico-riscos-globais","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/?p=3924","title":{"rendered":"Riscos Globais 2019 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nesta semana, o novo Presidente Bolsonaro participa de seu primeiro F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial, com discurso certamente concentrado em seus temas considerados priorit\u00e1rios, como o indiscut\u00edvel combate \u00e0 corrup\u00e7\u00e3o, a mudan\u00e7a do eixo nas rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais, as reformas econ\u00f4micas estruturantes, e tamb\u00e9m uma reavalia\u00e7\u00e3o geral da OMC. No entanto, preocupa a pouca prioridade dos temas socioambientais em sua agenda.<\/p>\n<p>O relat\u00f3rio de riscos globais 2019 do F\u00f3rum, lan\u00e7ado na semana passada, traz novamente <strong>7 riscos socioambientais dentro dos 11 mais cr\u00edticos<\/strong>: eventos clim\u00e1ticos extremos, desastres naturais, falha na mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o\/adapta\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas, crise da \u00e1gua, perdas de biodiversidade e colapso de ecossistemas, migra\u00e7\u00e3o involunt\u00e1ria de grande escala, desastres ambientais causados pelo homem. Com rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos <strong>5 riscos ambientais aqui citados, <\/strong>merece destaque:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>aumento do seu impacto avaliado;<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>nos \u00faltimos anos alguns deles j\u00e1 vinham sendo avaliados dentre os 5 mais cr\u00edticos, ou de maior impacto ou de maior probabilidade;<\/li>\n<li>desde 2012 h\u00e1 pelo menos 2 deles entre os \u201ctop 5\u201d de maior probabilidade, e pelo menos 1 deles entre os \u201ctop 5\u201d de maior impacto (nos \u00faltimos 2 anos houve 3 riscos ambientais dentro dos \u201ctop 5\u201d tanto de probabilidade como de impacto).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Outro ponto que merece \u00eanfase \u00e9 o crescimento acentuado dos riscos tecnol\u00f3gicos: al\u00e9m dos ataques cibern\u00e9ticos (constante do quadrante dos riscos mais cr\u00edticos), a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do impacto de riscos ligados a detalhamento de informa\u00e7\u00e3o e infra-estrutura cr\u00edtica e fraude ou roubo de dados (agora pr\u00f3ximos ao quadrante dos riscos mais cr\u00edticos).<\/p>\n<p>Segue abaixo o diagrama resumido:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3930\" src=\"http:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-2019-riscos-globais.png\" alt=\"Riscos Globais F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial\" width=\"544\" height=\"507\" srcset=\"https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-2019-riscos-globais.png 544w, https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-2019-riscos-globais-300x280.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3931\" src=\"http:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-riscos-globais-legenda.png\" alt=\"Legenda Riscos Globais\" width=\"835\" height=\"470\" srcset=\"https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-riscos-globais-legenda.png 835w, https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-riscos-globais-legenda-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/ellux-consultoria-riscos-globais-legenda-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fonte: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/reports\/the-global-risks-report-2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/reports\/the-global-risks-report-2019<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Outro ponto destaque no relat\u00f3rio foram as explica\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o <strong>&#8220;lado humano dos riscos globais&#8221;<\/strong>,\u00a0 em um mundo para muitos cada vez mais ansioso, infeliz, solit\u00e1rio e menos emp\u00e1tico, em que o estresse psicol\u00f3gico est\u00e1 relacionado a uma sensa\u00e7\u00e3o de falta de controle diante da incerteza. Eu ampliaria esta incerteza usando o acr\u00f3stico ingl\u00eas <strong><em>VUCA \u2013 \u201cvolatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, que est\u00e1 sendo muito usado para representar o estado atual do ambiente pol\u00edtico, econ\u00f4mico, socioambiental, cultural e tecnol\u00f3gico. O texto detalha ainda os dados que justificam o porqu\u00ea o bem estar \u00e9 importante.<\/p>\n<p>Constam tamb\u00e9m da an\u00e1lise os riscos ligados \u00e0s tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas, amea\u00e7as ao multilateralismo e aos acordos comerciais.<\/p>\n<p>Esperamos que as opini\u00f5es dos especialistas do F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial ajudem a convencer e conscientizar o Presidente Bolsonaro sobre o tamanho das consequ\u00eancias dos\u00a0 riscos socioambientais e geopol\u00edticos, e da import\u00e2ncia de trat\u00e1-los com mais prioridade do que a que tem sido demonstrada at\u00e9 o momento&#8230; \u00a0Pois todos n\u00f3s estamos envolvidos na <strong>MUVUCA\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em><strong>Michel Epelbaum\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Diretor da<strong>\u00a0Ellux Consultoria<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Consulte nossos servi\u00e7os de\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/consultoria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Consultoria<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/treinamentos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Treinamento<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/auditoria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Auditoria<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0em Sistemas de Gest\u00e3o, inclusive nas Normas\u00a0<strong>\u00a0ISO 31000,<\/strong><strong>\u00a0ISO 14001, ISO 9001, ISO 37001<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>ISO 19600,<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>ISO 45001 e ISO 26000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Saiba mais em nossos posts relacionados:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/riscos-globais-2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Riscos Globais 2018 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/riscos-globais-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Riscos Globais 2017 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/global-risks-2016-forum-economico-mundial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Risks 2016 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/iso-31000-gestao-riscos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mudan\u00e7as na ISO 31000 \u2013 Gest\u00e3o de Riscos<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Permalink to NOVIDADES NAS NORMAS ISO DE GEST\u00c3O DE RISCOS!\" href=\"http:\/\/www.elluxconsultoria.com.br\/novidades-gestao-de-riscos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novidades nas Normas ISO de Gest\u00e3o de Riscos!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nesta semana, o novo Presidente Bolsonaro participa de seu primeiro F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial, com discurso certamente concentrado em seus temas considerados priorit\u00e1rios, como o indiscut\u00edvel combate \u00e0 corrup\u00e7\u00e3o, a mudan\u00e7a do eixo nas rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais, as reformas econ\u00f4micas estruturantes, e tamb\u00e9m uma reavalia\u00e7\u00e3o geral da OMC. No entanto, preocupa a pouca prioridade dos temas socioambientais<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/?p=3924\" class=\"themebutton2\">READ MORE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":3929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-riscos","post_format-post-format-image"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Riscos Globais 2019 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial - Ellux Consultoria<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/elluxconsultoria.com.br\/?p=3924\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Riscos Globais 2019 \u2013 F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial - Ellux Consultoria\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nesta semana, o novo Presidente Bolsonaro participa de seu primeiro F\u00f3rum Econ\u00f4mico Mundial, com discurso certamente concentrado em seus temas considerados priorit\u00e1rios, como o indiscut\u00edvel combate \u00e0 corrup\u00e7\u00e3o, a mudan\u00e7a do eixo nas rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais, as reformas econ\u00f4micas estruturantes, e tamb\u00e9m uma reavalia\u00e7\u00e3o geral da OMC. 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